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Prediction for CME (2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-10T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25870/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery (data gap during event in STEREO A as it travels out in the field of view). The source of this CME is a double ribbon flare near AR13366 and plage region 13358 and associated filament eruption starting around 2023-07-10T03:20Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 131, 304, and 171. The associated filament is very clearly seen in GOES SUVI 304 as well. Arrival signature: Clear interplanetary shock consisting of magnetic field enhancement from 7 nT to 14 nT, rapid increase in ACE particle density, and rapid but relatively small increases in solar wind speed and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-12T09:41Z (-8.09h, +11.46h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/07/10 04:05Z
Plane of Sky 1: 10:05Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction; Note: CH HSS correction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:15Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
POS Difference: 5:10
POS Midpoint: 12:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.24
Travel Time: ~6.24 * 8:35 = 53:36

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-12T09:41Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 15%

Lead Time: 73.48 hour(s)
Difference: 30.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-07-10T14:20Z

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